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Storm Forecast Valid: Sun 09 May 2021 07:00 to Mon 10 May 2021 06:00 UTC

10-05-2021 06:51 | Estofex | m.b.t. 09-05-2021 t/m 10-05-2021

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 09 May 2021 07:00 to Mon 10 May 2021 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 09 May 2021 06:51
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 2 was issued across eastern Spain and southwestern France mainly for damaging wind gusts, large hail, excessive rainfall and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued across Spain mainly for damaging wind gusts and large hail.

A level 1 was issued across central / northern France and parts of BENELUX mainly for large hail and to the lesser degree for severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued across Denmark mainly for large hail and to the lesser degree of heavy rainfall.

SYNOPSIS

An extensive ridge stretches from the central Mediterranean into central Europe and southern Scandinavia, contributing to a highly amplified flow pattern. Deep troughs surround the ridge, one over the Atlantic and another one over the Black Sea. The Atlantic trough will slowly progress eastwards, with a short-wave attached to its base moving fast towards southern Portugal and Spain. A wavy frontal boundary is observed along the forward flank of the trough as very warm airmass has been advected from the southern Mediterranean towards northern Germany. The Black Sea trough will also progress eastwards, affecting eastern Turkey and the Caucasus region along with a cold front.

DISCUSSION

... Central France to Denmark ...

NWP is in disagreement regarding the occurrence of an uncapped warm sector ahead of the wavy frontal boundary. Forecast Skew-Ts clearly reveal substantial MUCAPE in the wake of the front with moist profiles, suggesting elevated chances of convective initiation. Convective coverage is uncertain over the discussed area due to the lack of synoptic-scale support at the mid to upper troposphere.

In the belt from central France to Denmark, the highest likelihood of surface-based storms will be over central France, decreasing towards north. Here, severe weather threat will be the highest and isolated supercells may produce large hail and severe wind gusts.

Forecast hodographs show substantial shear above the inflow layer also for the elevated storms in the wake of the frontal boundary, so that elevated supercells / well-organised mutlicells will be possible also over parts of Denmark. Large hail and isolated heavy rain event may occur with stronger storms.

(alleen de voor NL en direct aangrenzende gebieden relevante tekstdelen zijn overgenomen, klik hier voor de volledige forecast tekst, red.)

Hagel(-schade) | Verwachtingen/waarschuwingen | Wind/storm (-schade)

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