07-10-2019 | Estofex | m.b.t. 08-10-2019 t/m 09-10-2019
A level 1 was issued for the coasts of SE UK, the Netherlands, Denmark, N Germany, and Poland mainly for severe convective wind gusts.
Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 08 Oct 2019 06:00 to Wed 09 Oct 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 07 Oct 2019 21:29
Forecaster: DAFIS
A level 1 was issued for the coasts of SE UK, the Netherlands, Denmark, N Germany, and Poland mainly for severe convective wind gusts.
SYNOPSIS
An intensifying ridge over the western Mediterranean will result in an anticyclonic Rossby-wave breaking over southern Italy. The resulted cut-off low that is about to form on Tuesday 08/10 will move south towards Africa and it will continue to destabilize the environment of the Central Mediterranean. The advection of warm air masses from southwest towards Central Europe and the presence of unseasonably cold air masses over N-NE Europe will create a wide zone of strong baroclinicity and will intensify the polar jet-stream. Several short-wave troughs can be found in the forecasting maps but convection will be limited to the areas with enough low-level moisture in the North and Baltic Seas.
DISCUSSION
.... SE UK, the Netherlands, Denmark, N Germany, and Poland ....
Some instability is expected over the North and Baltic Seas during the east-propagation of a cold front, and a few storms may survive to reach the coasts. A high-shear / low-CAPE environment limits any other severe weather threats than severe convective wind gusts, under the jet-stream.
Verwachtingen/waarschuwingen | Wind/storm (-schade)