12-09-2015 | Estofex | m.b.t. 13-09-2015 t/m 14-09-2015
A level 1 was issued for parts of Germany, Benelux, France and Italy mainly for excessive rain and large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes.
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 13 Sep 2015 06:00 to Mon 14 Sep 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 12 Sep 2015 19:51
Forecaster: DAFIS
A level 1 was issued for parts of Germany, Benelux, France and Italy mainly for excessive rain and large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes.
SYNOPSIS
A longwave trough reaches the Bay of Biscay during Sunday, associated with several depressions at the surface. Strong wind field in mid and upper troposphere create a strongly sheared environment in Southwestern Europe where again extreme weather events are expected. The main threat is found in SE France and NW Italy where very high amounts of precipitation are forecast, locally exceeding the 300mm/24h. We chose not to issue a level 3 for these regions because of the almost annual iteration of such phenomena and the locally enhanced orographic convection that limits the coverage of the extreme events. In eastern parts of Europe high geopotentials and advection of warm air masses from the South prevent convection.
DISCUSSION
.... Germany, Benelux, France and Italy ....
As a cold front is approaching, DMC is forecast to occur, especially in the Benelux region. DLS will be in the range of 15-20m/s, so we expect some organized storm cells to become severe and produce large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive rain (PW >30mm). Tornado threat is limited concering the strong low level wind field but LLS will form in Benelux and LCL heights will be below 1000m. During the night the rainfall will continue but produced by stratiform clouds.
Hagel(-schade) | Tornado/hoosverschijnsel(en) | Verwachtingen/waarschuwingen | Wind/storm (-schade)