Storm Forecast Valid: Mon 28 Sep 2026 06:00 to Tue 29 Sep 2026 06:00 UTC
27-09-2026 | Estofex | m.b.t. 28-09-2026 t/m 29-09-2026
A level 1 was issued for parts of Belgium/the Netherlands mainy for isolated hail.
Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 28 Sep 2026 06:00 to Tue 29 Sep 2026 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 27 Sep 2026 14:33
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 1 was issued for parts of Belgium/the Netherlands mainy for isolated hail.
SYNOPSIS
A blocking ridge gets framed by 2 longwave troughs to its W and E. Both bring some convective activity to W and SE Europe including a regional severe risk. In general however a rather quiet pattern for DMC activity persists.
DISCUSSION
From NW to NE France into Belgium/the Netherlands, a N-ward pushing warm front with better tropospheric moisture content offers a belt of meager to modest elevated MUCAPE. A short-wave crosses NW France during the day to SE England, which induces a somewhat augmented thunderstorm risk, which spreads from NW France to the Netherlands during the day.
Elevated CAPE and ineffective SRH probably support a few elevated rotating updrafts with ID2-EPS highlighting W Benelux to the Netherlands during the night. Small hail and heavy (but short) bursts of rain are forecast but even ensemble data has only meager gust signals. Still a low-end level 1 upgrade was performed as some concern exist for a temporal overlap during the evening into the night for robust mid-level MUCAPE with strong speed/directional shear which could support isolated hail, approaching our severe criterion.
(alleen de voor NL en aangrenzende gebieden relevante tekstdelen overgenomen, klik hier voor de volledige forecast, red.)
Hagel(-schade) | Onweer/blikseminslag | Verwachtingen/waarschuwingen