30-05-2025 21:16 | Estofex | m.b.t. 31-05-2025 t/m 01-06-2025
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 31 May 2025 06:00 to Sun 01 Jun 2025 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 30 May 2025 21:16
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 2 was issued across N France, S Belgium, Luxembourg, W-central Germany mainly for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts and to the lesser extent for tornadoes or heavy rainfall.
A level 1 was issued from central France through NW Switzerland, S Germany into E Germany, Czechia and SW Poland mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.
DISCUSSION
... N France through Belgium, Luxembourg into Germany ...
Within the warm sector in between of a diffuse cold front slowly arriving from W France and a warm front across northern Germany, a belt of dewpoints of 16 to 18 deg C is forecast, overlapping with moderately steep lapse rates up to 7 K/km. South of the belt, deep dry boundary layer with abundant heating are simulated, resulting in Inverted-V profiles from central France through Switzerland into S Germany. MLCAPE values from 1000 to 2500 J/kg are forecast within the belt of enhanced low-level moisture. Multiple rounds of storms are likely across the area.
The first round of storms will be tied to a short-wave trough entering area around 09 UTC. Convective initiation will likely be ongoing towards 12 UTC, starting from an area of elevated showers that will move over progressively warmer and destabilized airmass. The most likely point of initiation will be extreme W Germany with storms spreading E/ESE. With 0-6 km bulk shear of 15 - 20 m/s, storms will be organised into transient supercells and short linear segments. Expect threat of severe wind gusts and large hail. Threat of severe gusts will increase if the storms propagate SE towards the deeper boundary layer environment. Evolving convective system may reach Czechia and southwestern Poland.
The second round of storms may follow in the evening hours with arrival of a second short-wave trough and finally also the cold front. Some models suggest slight increase in the deep layer shear with values around 20 m/s and multiple splitting supercells evolving across the area with threats of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. With slight increase in low-level shear towards the evening hours, a tornado will be possible especially in case of a favorable interaction of individual storms. Storms may last well into the night and early morning hours as the cold front slowly moves across the area.
(alleen de voor NL en direct aangrenzende gebieden relevante tekstdelen overgenomen, klik hier voor de volledige forecast, red.)
Hagel(-schade) | Onweer/blikseminslag | Tornado/hoosverschijnsel(en) | Verwachtingen/waarschuwingen | Wateroverlast/(zware) neerslag | Wind/storm (-schade)
