12-07-2025 20:31 | Estofex | m.b.t. 13-07-2025 t/m 14-07-2025
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 13 Jul 2025 06:00 to Mon 14 Jul 2025 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 12 Jul 2025 20:31
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 1 was issued from the Netherlands E towards Poland for an heavy rain risk, which turns more to isolated hail/gusts, heavy rain and a tornado or two towards Poland.
SYNOPSIS
Positive geopotential heights increase mainly over Scandinavia in response to impressive high-latitude blocking for this time of year. This anticyclone connects to strong subtropical anticyclones over the Mediterranean in the form of broad ridging over far E Europe into far W Russia.
South of this Scandinavian blocking anticylone, a zonally aligned channel of lowered geopotential heights extends from the NE Atlantic towards CNTRL and SW Europe. Numerous more or less defined cut-offs are embedded within this channel and bring unsettled conditions to various places. In addition, numerous low-amplitude waves circle the main steering vortices and cross the W/CNTRL Mediterranean east.
An extensive frontal boundary runs from S Sweden E towards W Russland, where it bends south. The airmass E of this boundary is very unstable and ready for DMC activity.
DISCUSSION
... N Germany into Poland ...
The slowly westward shifting cyclonic vortex sparks isolated to scattered thunderstorms over N/NE into E-CNTRL Germany. For convection next to the vortex' center (far N/NE Germany), the troposphere seems to be worked over by active convection from the previous day next to somewhat more stable BL inflow from the NE. Slow moving convection poses an isolated heavy rain risk. An isolated short tornado/funnel event over NE Germany is not ruled out with temporal diabatic heating and somehwat enhanced LL CAPE.
Further S, towards E-CNTRL Germany, better CAPE and 10-15 m/s DLS support a few multicells with some hail and gust risk next to isolated heavy rain. Further E into Poland and far NE Czechia, MUCAPE increases towards 10-15 m/s with WAA induced hodograph curvature. A mix of multicells and a few supercells is forecast with some hail, gusts and heavy rain issues. An isolated tornado event is possible with lowered LCLs and a more unstable 0-3 km layer.
We pushed the level 1 far N over most of N Poland to account for slow moving and partially clustered convection with heavy rain and an isolated tornado risk.
We also extended the level 1 into the Netherlands for a few heavy rain reports with slow moving convection.
(alleen de voor NL en aangrenzende gebieden relevante tekstdelen overgenomen, klik hier voor de volledige forecast, red.)
Onweer/blikseminslag | Verwachtingen/waarschuwingen | Wateroverlast/(zware) neerslag
