24-08-2015 00:00 | Estofex | m.b.t. 24-08-2015 t/m 25-08-2015
Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 24 Aug 2015 06:00 to Tue 25 Aug 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 24 Aug 2015 04:49
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 2 was issued for Belgium, Netherlands and NW Germany mainly for tornadoes and severe convective wind gusts.
A level 2 was issued for NE Italy mainly for large hail and excessive convective precipitation.
A level 1 was issued for S Scandinavia for large hail.
A level 1 was issued for S Germany for large hail.
A level 1 was issued for Italy mainly for large hail and tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for NW Algeria and Tunesia mainly for severe convective wind gusts and large hail.
SYNOPSIS
A vigorous low pressure system with sharp pressure gradients moves through the English Channel into the North Sea. Its strongest rising motions occur over N FRance, Belgium, Netherlands and NW Germany. A cold front should roughly be situated over NE France, Belgium and SW Netherlands by 12Z (GFS 18Z run), occluded and bending back to the center of the low via southern UK. The warm and especially humid airmass harbors 200-700 J/kg MLCAPE. Unstable airmasses also are found over southern Scandinavia (1000 J/kg), Germany and over N Italy (1000-2000 J/kg).
DISCUSSION
...France, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, N Germany, S England...
Strong lift will likely trigger widespread thunderstorms. While most low-level wind is found behind the cold front, the region along the cold front seems to develop more than 10 m/s 0-1 km shear and enhanced SREH which can assist in tornadogenesis, particularly together with the low LCL heights in the humid airmass. One or more tornadoes could occur, as well as severe gusts. Isolated excessive rain may occur over S England where the occlusion and embedded thunderstorms can drag slowly.
(alleen de voor NL en aangrenzende streken relevante tekstdelen overgenomen, klik hier voor de volledige forecast, red.)
Verwachtingen/waarschuwingen
